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Jaro vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 14:00

Jaro

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 5

FULL TIME

HJK Helsinki

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-116.3%0-210.4%0-34.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.7%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-03.9%2-15.0%2-23.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 22.2% 4.50 +18.3%

Draw 28.2% 27.0% 3.70 +2.6%

Away win 42.8% 59.5% 1.68 -28.1%

Over 2.5 47.1% 57.8% 1.73 -18.5%

Over 3.5 28.1% 36.4% 2.75 -13.6%

BTTS 47.8% 60.6% 1.65 -21.1%

Home O1.5 33.0% 31.3% 3.20 +5.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 58.8% 1.70 -43.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 25.6%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.8%

A 43% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 12.7%

#3 0–1 16.3%

#4 0–2 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaro0.8

HJK Helsinki1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JARO · PPG 1.25

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Jaro (H) 29.0%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +18.3%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +2.6%

HJK Helsinki (A) 42.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -28.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaro face HJK Helsinki in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaro a 29% chance, the draw 28% and HJK Helsinki 43%, so HJK Helsinki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Jaro and 1.3 for HJK Helsinki (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaro are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for HJK Helsinki. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 2-5.

Jaro vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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