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Istra vs Vukovar Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:45

Istra

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Vukovar

PPG 0.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.2% vs bookmaker-implied 45.0% — a clear edge.

+47.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-14.6%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.5%1-19.5%1-23.9%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-16.7%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-15.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.2% 45.0% 2.22 +47.0%

Draw 19.9% 29.4% 3.40 -32.3%

Away win 13.9% 34.2% 2.92 -59.4%

Over 2.5 55.2% 52.6% 1.90 +4.9%

Over 3.5 32.9% 30.8% 3.25 +6.9%

BTTS 49.1% 59.9% 1.67 -18.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 66% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 55% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Istra2.1

Vukovar0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ISTRA · PPG 1.36

VUKOVAR · PPG 0.21

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.36), Away POOR (0.21) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Istra (H) 66.2%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +47.0%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -32.3%

Vukovar (A) 13.9%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -59.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Istra face Vukovar in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Istra a 66% chance, the draw 20% and Vukovar 14%, so Istra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Istra and 0.8 for Vukovar (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Istra are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.21 for Vukovar. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +47.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Istra vs Vukovar Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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