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Wollongong W. vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 08:00

Wollongong W.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-112.3%0-27.5%0-33.1%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.7%1-113.2%1-28.1%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.8%2-17.1%2-24.4%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.1%3-12.5%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.5% 23.1% 4.33 +45.1%

Draw 29.7% 27.0% 3.70 +5.9%

Away win 36.8% 59.5% 1.68 -38.2%

Over 2.5 47.1% 62.5% 1.60 -24.6%

Over 3.5 28.1% 40.8% 2.45 -18.7%

BTTS 49.1% 64.5% 1.55 -23.9%

Home O1.5 36.8% 35.7% 2.80 +3.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 62.5% 1.60 -47.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.1%

D 30% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 0–1 12.3%

#4 1–0 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wollongong W.1.1

APIA Leichhardt1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 2.00

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Wollongong W. (H) 33.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +45.1%

Draw 29.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +5.9%

APIA Leichhardt (A) 36.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -38.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wollongong W. face APIA Leichhardt in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wollongong W. a 34% chance, the draw 30% and APIA Leichhardt 37%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Wollongong W. and 1.2 for APIA Leichhardt (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wollongong W. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.75 for APIA Leichhardt. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +45.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Wollongong W. vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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