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Macarthur Rams vs Hurstville FC Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 06:30

Macarthur Rams

PPG 1.54 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hurstville FC

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.4%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.5%1-111.8%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.4%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.5%3-15.0%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 46.5% 2.15 +6.6%

Draw 25.0% 27.8% 3.60 -6.0%

Away win 25.4% 37.0% 2.70 -18.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 57.1% 1.75 -5.7%

Over 3.5 33.7% 37.6% 2.66 -10.4%

BTTS 55.4% 64.9% 1.54 -14.7%

Home O1.5 52.3% 49.5% 2.02 +5.7%

Away O1.5 36.4% 44.1% 2.27 -17.4%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macarthur Rams1.6

Hurstville FC1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARTHUR RAMS · PPG 1.54

HURSTVILLE FC · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Macarthur Rams (H) 49.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +6.6%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.0%

Hurstville FC (A) 25.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macarthur Rams face Hurstville FC in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macarthur Rams a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Hurstville FC 25%, so Macarthur Rams are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Macarthur Rams and 1.1 for Hurstville FC (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macarthur Rams are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 0.80 for Hurstville FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.7%.

Macarthur Rams vs Hurstville FC Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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