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Northern Tigers vs Blacktown Spartans Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 06:30

Northern Tigers

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Blacktown Spartans

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.5%0-24.9%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.0%1-111.7%1-27.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.0%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.6%3-14.7%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 43.5% 2.30 +5.8%

Draw 25.0% 26.7% 3.75 -3.8%

Away win 29.0% 41.7% 2.40 -18.2%

Over 2.5 55.6% 65.4% 1.53 -14.9%

Over 3.5 34.6% 44.8% 2.23 -22.8%

BTTS 57.7% 70.4% 1.42 -18.1%

Home O1.5 46.4% 54.1% 1.85 -14.2%

Away O1.5 38.4% 51.5% 1.94 -25.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 5.8%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northern Tigers1.5

Blacktown Spartans1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHERN TIGERS · PPG 2.25

BLACKTOWN SPARTANS · PPG 1.73

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.25 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Northern Tigers (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +5.8%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -3.8%

Blacktown Spartans (A) 29.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northern Tigers face Blacktown Spartans in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northern Tigers a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Blacktown Spartans 29%, so Northern Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Northern Tigers and 1.3 for Blacktown Spartans (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northern Tigers are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.73 for Blacktown Spartans.

Northern Tigers vs Blacktown Spartans Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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