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UNSW vs Sydney FC B Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, July 4, 2026, 05:00

UNSW

PPG 1.73 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sydney FC B

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-18.6%0-25.8%0-32.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.0%1-112.1%1-28.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.3%2-18.5%2-25.7%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.9%3-14.0%3-22.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 52.4% 1.91 -30.1%

Draw 25.6% 28.6% 3.50 -6.2%

Away win 37.8% 29.0% 3.45 +30.4%

Over 2.5 54.1% 60.6% 1.65 -10.7%

Over 3.5 33.2% 38.5% 2.60 -13.7%

BTTS 55.6% 65.4% 1.53 -14.9%

Home O1.5 43.1% 54.6% 1.83 -21.1%

Away O1.5 39.8% 42.0% 2.38 -5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 91 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -13.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.6%

H 37% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW1.4

Sydney FC B1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW · PPG 1.73

SYDNEY FC B · PPG 1.56

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

UNSW (H) 36.6%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -30.1%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.2%

Sydney FC B (A) 37.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face Sydney FC B in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, July 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Sydney FC B 38%, so Sydney FC B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for UNSW and 1.3 for Sydney FC B (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.56 for Sydney FC B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +30.4%. This match finished 3-2.

UNSW vs Sydney FC B Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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