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Bankstown City Lions vs Canterbury Bankstown Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Regular Season - 25 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 07:00

Bankstown City Lions

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Canterbury Bankstown

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.3%0-24.5%0-33.2%0-4+2.7%1 1-03.7%1-17.7%1-28.1%1-35.7%1-4+4.8%2 2-03.3%2-16.9%2-27.2%2-35.1%2-4+4.3%3 3-01.9%3-14.1%3-24.3%3-33.0%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.7%4+-22.9%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 54.6% 1.83 -33.6%

Draw 21.7% 26.3% 3.80 -10.5%

Away win 42.0% 30.8% 3.25 +36.5%

Over 2.5 67.0% 66.7% 1.50 +0.5%

Over 3.5 44.5% 44.8% 2.23 -0.8%

BTTS 64.5% 69.4% 1.44 -7.1%

Home O1.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Away O1.5 54.5% 42.6% 2.35 +28.1%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob64.5%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.1 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 1–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bankstown City Lions1.8

Canterbury Bankstown2.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BANKSTOWN CITY LIONS · PPG 1.67

CANTERBURY BANKSTOWN · PPG 1.83

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.32 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bankstown City Lions (H) 36.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -33.6%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -10.5%

Canterbury Bankstown (A) 42.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bankstown City Lions face Canterbury Bankstown in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bankstown City Lions a 36% chance, the draw 22% and Canterbury Bankstown 42%, so Canterbury Bankstown are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Bankstown City Lions and 2.1 for Canterbury Bankstown (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bankstown City Lions are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.83 for Canterbury Bankstown. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +28.1%.

Bankstown City Lions vs Canterbury Bankstown Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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