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Gold C. Knights vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Saturday, June 13, 2026, 08:00

Gold C. Knights

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Eastern Suburbs

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-13.2%0-23.0%0-31.9%0-4+1.3%1 1-03.8%1-17.1%1-26.6%1-34.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.2%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.0%3-15.7%3-25.3%3-33.3%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-15.2%4+-24.8%4+-33.0%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 45.5% 2.20 -3.0%

Draw 21.9% 26.0% 3.85 -9.4%

Away win 34.0% 38.5% 2.60 -11.6%

Over 2.5 65.8% 72.5% 1.38 -9.2%

Over 3.5 46.9% 51.3% 1.95 -8.6%

BTTS 66.7% 75.2% 1.33 -11.3%

Home O1.5 61.0% 59.9% 1.67 +1.9%

Away O1.5 49.4% 55.6% 1.80 -11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.7%

H 44% / xG 2.2-1.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.1%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gold C. Knights2.2

Eastern Suburbs1.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLD C. KNIGHTS · PPG 2.33

EASTERN SUBURBS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Gold C. Knights (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -3.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.4%

Eastern Suburbs (A) 34.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gold C. Knights face Eastern Suburbs in Australia - Queensland NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gold C. Knights a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Eastern Suburbs 34%, so Gold C. Knights are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Gold C. Knights and 1.9 for Eastern Suburbs (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gold C. Knights are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Eastern Suburbs. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.1%.

Gold C. Knights vs Eastern Suburbs Prediction— Australia - Queensland NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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