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Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Kuncheng Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 07:30

Changchun Yatai

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dalian Kuncheng

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-110.3%0-27.0%0-33.2%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.2%1-112.6%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.6%2-17.7%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.3%3-13.1%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 48.8% 2.05 -27.0%

Draw 28.2% 32.3% 3.10 -7.5%

Away win 36.2% 28.6% 3.50 +26.7%

Over 2.5 53.3% 48.8% 2.05 +9.3%

Over 3.5 30.6% 27.4% 3.65 +11.7%

BTTS 55.7% 55.6% 1.80 +0.3%

Home O1.5 41.6% 46.5% 2.15 -10.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 32.3% 3.10 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.7%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 1–2 8.6%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1✓ 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Changchun Yatai1.2

Dalian Kuncheng1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CHANGCHUN YATAI · PPG 1.50

DALIAN KUNCHENG · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Changchun Yatai (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -27.0%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.5%

Dalian Kuncheng (A) 36.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +26.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Changchun Yatai face Dalian Kuncheng in China - League One on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Changchun Yatai a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Dalian Kuncheng 36%, so Dalian Kuncheng are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Changchun Yatai and 1.4 for Dalian Kuncheng (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Dalian Kuncheng. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Changchun Yatai vs Dalian Kuncheng Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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