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Guangxi Hengchen vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring Prediction— China - League One

Regular Season - 16 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 11:30

Guangxi Hengchen

PPG 2.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

Heilongjiang Lava Spring

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+17.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.7%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.0%1-19.7%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.0%3-16.8%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.6%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 71.4% 1.40 -20.2%

Draw 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

Away win 20.4% 13.8% 7.25 +28.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 54.1% 1.85 +17.8%

Over 3.5 40.0% 32.3% 3.10 +24.0%

BTTS 57.2% 50.0% 2.00 +14.4%

Home O1.5 60.5% 63.7% 1.57 -5.0%

Away O1.5 29.2% 21.1% 4.75 +23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -33.6%

Bet Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.2%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 3–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guangxi Hengchen2.1

Heilongjiang Lava Spring1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GUANGXI HENGCHEN · PPG 2.43

HEILONGJIANG LAVA SPRING · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guangxi Hengchen (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -20.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.0%

Heilongjiang Lava Spring (A) 20.4%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +28.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guangxi Hengchen face Heilongjiang Lava Spring in China - League One on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guangxi Hengchen a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Heilongjiang Lava Spring 20%, so Guangxi Hengchen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Guangxi Hengchen and 1.0 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guangxi Hengchen are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.43 for Heilongjiang Lava Spring. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +50.9%.

Guangxi Hengchen vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring Prediction— China - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League One Predictions