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Sutherland S. vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 07:30

Sutherland S.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Blacktown City

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.7%0-23.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.3%1-110.4%1-26.6%1-32.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.7%3-15.9%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.1%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 45.5% 2.20 +16.4%

Draw 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Away win 23.2% 37.0% 2.70 -22.4%

Over 2.5 58.0% 61.7% 1.62 -6.0%

Over 3.5 37.1% 38.5% 2.60 -3.5%

BTTS 55.7% 66.7% 1.50 -16.4%

Home O1.5 59.1% 52.4% 1.91 +12.9%

Away O1.5 33.0% 46.5% 2.15 -29.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.7%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 1–2✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutherland S.1.8

Blacktown City1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTHERLAND S. · PPG 1.50

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Sutherland S. (H) 52.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +16.4%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Blacktown City (A) 23.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -22.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutherland S. face Blacktown City in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutherland S. a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Blacktown City 23%, so Sutherland S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sutherland S. and 1.3 for Blacktown City (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutherland S. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.89 for Blacktown City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Sutherland S. vs Blacktown City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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