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NWS Spirit vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 07:30

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sydney Olympic

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.6%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.7%1-111.9%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.4%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.4%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.8%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 65.4% 1.53 -29.3%

Draw 25.5% 23.8% 4.20 +4.3%

Away win 28.3% 20.8% 4.80 +21.5%

Over 2.5 48.9% 63.7% 1.57 -23.2%

Over 3.5 29.4% 40.8% 2.45 -16.8%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 49.3% 66.7% 1.50 -26.1%

Away O1.5 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 6.8%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NWS Spirit1.6

Sydney Olympic1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.33

SYDNEY OLYMPIC · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

NWS Spirit (H) 46.2%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -29.3%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +4.3%

Sydney Olympic (A) 28.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

NWS Spirit face Sydney Olympic in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NWS Spirit a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Sydney Olympic 28%, so NWS Spirit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for NWS Spirit and 1.1 for Sydney Olympic (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NWS Spirit are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.78 for Sydney Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.5%. This match finished 3-0.

NWS Spirit vs Sydney Olympic Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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