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Stirling vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 07:00

Stirling

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sorrento

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.0%0-23.1%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.3%1-18.3%1-26.6%1-33.5%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.5%2-18.8%2-27.0%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-03.9%3-16.1%3-24.9%3-32.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.3%4+-24.2%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 27.7% — — —

Over 2.5 65.8% — — —

Over 3.5 42.8% — — —

BTTS 63.7% — — —

Home O1.5 61.0% — — —

Away O1.5 49.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.7%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stirling2.1

Sorrento1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

STIRLING · PPG 1.29

SORRENTO · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (2.00) strong but model favors Home (P=49.9%)

Win probability 1X2

Stirling (H) 49.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sorrento (A) 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Stirling face Sorrento in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stirling a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Sorrento 28%, so Stirling are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Stirling and 1.6 for Sorrento (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stirling are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.00 for Sorrento. This match finished 0-1.

Stirling vs Sorrento Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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