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Fremantle City vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 07:00

Fremantle City

PPG 1.33 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Balcatta

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+23.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-11.4%0-20.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.6%1-14.5%1-22.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.5%2 2-05.9%2-17.3%2-24.5%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-18.0%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-011.9%4+-114.7%4+-29.1%4+-33.7%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% 54.1% 1.85 +17.3%

Draw 18.1% 28.6% 3.50 -22.0%

Away win 18.4% 30.3% 3.30 -23.6%

Over 2.5 73.0% 69.4% 1.44 +5.1%

Over 3.5 51.6% 47.6% 2.10 +8.4%

BTTS 63.7% 71.4% 1.40 -10.8%

Home O1.5 76.0% 61.7% 1.62 +23.1%

Away O1.5 33.0% 45.5% 2.20 -27.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.7%

H 63% / xG 3.3-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.0%

#2 2–1 7.3%

#3 4–1 6.5%

#4 3–0 6.4%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fremantle City3.3

Balcatta1.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.33

BALCATTA · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=63.4%

Win probability 1X2

Fremantle City (H) 63.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +17.3%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -22.0%

Balcatta (A) 18.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fremantle City face Balcatta in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fremantle City a 63% chance, the draw 18% and Balcatta 18%, so Fremantle City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Fremantle City and 1.2 for Balcatta (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fremantle City are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.50 for Balcatta. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +59.7%. This match finished 5-2.

Fremantle City vs Balcatta Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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