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Armadale vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 07:00

Armadale

PPG 1.67 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bayswater

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.0%0-23.7%0-33.0%0-4+3.3%1 1-02.4%1-15.9%1-27.2%1-35.9%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.3%2-15.7%2-27.0%2-35.7%2-4+6.3%3 3-01.5%3-13.7%3-24.5%3-33.7%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.8%4+-23.4%4+-32.8%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 29.4% 3.40 +16.3%

Draw 21.0% 25.6% 3.90 -10.9%

Away win 44.7% 57.1% 1.75 -21.8%

Over 2.5 73.0% 73.5% 1.36 -0.7%

Over 3.5 53.4% 54.6% 1.83 -2.3%

BTTS 67.2% 73.5% 1.36 -8.6%

Home O1.5 59.1% 45.5% 2.20 +30.0%

Away O1.5 67.9% 66.7% 1.50 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob67.2%

A 45% / xG 1.9-2.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.2%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 1–3 5.9%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Armadale1.9

Bayswater2.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARMADALE · PPG 1.67

BAYSWATER · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Armadale (H) 34.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +16.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.9%

Bayswater (A) 44.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Armadale face Bayswater in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Armadale a 34% chance, the draw 21% and Bayswater 45%, so Bayswater are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Armadale and 2.5 for Bayswater (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Armadale are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Bayswater. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +30.0%. This match finished 0-5.

Armadale vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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