Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Launceston Utd vs Devonport

Launceston Utd vs Devonport Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Saturday, June 13, 2026, 06:45

Launceston Utd

PPG 0.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Devonport

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 100.0% vs bookmaker-implied 93.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.0%0-10.2%0-20.8%0-32.0%0-4+36.0%1 1-00.0%1-10.2%1-20.8%1-31.8%1-4+33.8%2 2-00.0%2-10.1%2-20.4%2-30.9%2-4+15.9%3 3-00.0%3-10.0%3-20.1%3-30.3%3-4+5.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.5% 3.2% 31.00 +153.9%

Draw 10.0% 10.3% 9.75 -1.5%

Away win 78.5% 99.0% 1.01 -20.7%

Over 2.5 81.2% 93.5% 1.07 -13.1%

Over 3.5 71.0% 92.6% 1.08 -23.3%

BTTS 60.3% 44.4% 2.25 +35.7%

Home O1.5 33.9% 22.2% 4.50 +52.5%

Away O1.5 100.0% 93.5% 1.07 +7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 64%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)7.1 BTTS prob60.3%

A 78% / xG 0.9-7.1 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–5 4.9%

#2 1–5 4.6%

#3 0–4 3.5%

#4 1–4 3.3%

#5 2–5 2.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston Utd0.9

Devonport7.1

COMBINED 8.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.2% · O3.5 PROB 71.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON UTD · PPG 0.00

DEVONPORT · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Launceston Utd (H) 11.5%

ODDS 31.00 · IMPLIED 3.2% EV +153.9%

Draw 10.0%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV -1.5%

Devonport (A) 78.5%

ODDS 1.01 · IMPLIED 99.0% EV -20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston Utd face Devonport in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston Utd a 12% chance, the draw 10% and Devonport 79%, so Devonport are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Launceston Utd and 7.1 for Devonport (8.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-5. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston Utd are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 2.50 for Devonport. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +153.9%.

Launceston Utd vs Devonport Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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