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Glenorchy K. vs Riverside Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 06:45

Glenorchy K.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Riverside

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-15.0%0-24.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.2%1-19.1%1-27.9%1-34.6%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.7%2-18.2%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.8%3-14.9%3-24.3%3-32.5%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.4%4+-22.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 57.1% 1.75 -23.9%

Draw 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -9.6%

Away win 34.7% 29.0% 3.45 +19.7%

Over 2.5 64.9% 75.2% 1.33 -13.7%

Over 3.5 42.0% 57.1% 1.75 -26.5%

BTTS 63.7% 74.1% 1.35 -14.0%

Home O1.5 54.8% 69.9% 1.43 -21.6%

Away O1.5 49.4% 51.5% 1.94 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.7%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.1%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Glenorchy K.1.8

Riverside1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GLENORCHY K. · PPG 1.50

RIVERSIDE · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Glenorchy K. (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -23.9%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.6%

Riverside (A) 34.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Glenorchy K. face Riverside in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Glenorchy K. a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Riverside 35%, so Glenorchy K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Glenorchy K. and 1.7 for Riverside (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Glenorchy K. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Riverside. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Glenorchy K. vs Riverside Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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