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Maitland vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 06:30

Maitland

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Valentine

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.6%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.8%1-18.3%1-25.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.9%3-17.3%3-24.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-17.1%4+-24.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 63.7% 1.57 -15.2%

Draw 22.4% 25.6% 3.90 -7.6%

Away win 23.6% 21.7% 4.60 +5.1%

Over 2.5 64.2% 71.4% 1.40 -10.1%

Over 3.5 41.3% 52.1% 1.92 -20.7%

BTTS 61.6% 71.4% 1.40 -13.8%

Home O1.5 61.0% 72.5% 1.38 -15.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 39.4% 2.54 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maitland2.3

Valentine1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MAITLAND · PPG 1.00

VALENTINE · PPG 1.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Maitland (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -15.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.6%

Valentine (A) 23.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maitland face Valentine in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maitland a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Valentine 24%, so Maitland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Maitland and 1.2 for Valentine (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maitland are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.43 for Valentine. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Maitland vs Valentine Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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