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WS Wanderers B vs St George City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 05:00

WS Wanderers B

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

St George City

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+14.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.6%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-110.4%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.5%3-16.1%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-14.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 45.5% 2.20 +26.7%

Draw 22.4% 29.4% 3.40 -14.3%

Away win 20.0% 35.1% 2.85 -25.8%

Over 2.5 54.4% 59.9% 1.67 -9.2%

Over 3.5 32.5% 37.7% 2.65 -13.9%

BTTS 52.2% 65.4% 1.53 -20.1%

Home O1.5 59.1% 51.8% 1.93 +14.1%

Away O1.5 24.3% 43.5% 2.30 -26.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.2%

H 58% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1✓ 10.4%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

WS Wanderers B1.9

St George City0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WS WANDERERS B · PPG 0.75

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 0.71

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

WS Wanderers B (H) 57.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +26.7%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.3%

St George City (A) 20.0%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

WS Wanderers B face St George City in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives WS Wanderers B a 58% chance, the draw 22% and St George City 20%, so WS Wanderers B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for WS Wanderers B and 0.8 for St George City (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, WS Wanderers B are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.71 for St George City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.7%. This match finished 1-1.

WS Wanderers B vs St George City Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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