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UNSW vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 05:00

UNSW

PPG 2.11 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

S George Saints

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.5% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+11.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-16.2%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.4%1-110.9%1-24.5%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.6%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.9%3-15.6%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 50.0% 2.00 +11.0%

Draw 24.5% 29.9% 3.35 -10.8%

Away win 20.0% 30.3% 3.30 -20.4%

Over 2.5 48.9% 56.5% 1.77 -13.5%

Over 3.5 28.1% 34.7% 2.88 -11.4%

BTTS 47.8% 62.5% 1.60 -23.5%

Home O1.5 54.8% 52.6% 1.90 +4.1%

Away O1.5 24.3% 38.5% 2.60 -22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.8%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UNSW1.8

S George Saints0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UNSW · PPG 2.11

S GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 0.78

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs P(Home)=55.5%

Win probability 1X2

UNSW (H) 55.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +11.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.8%

S George Saints (A) 20.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

UNSW face S George Saints in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UNSW a 56% chance, the draw 25% and S George Saints 20%, so UNSW are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for UNSW and 0.8 for S George Saints (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UNSW are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.78 for S George Saints. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 1-4.

UNSW vs S George Saints Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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