Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Clarence Zebras vs South Hobart

Clarence Zebras vs South Hobart Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 04:30

Clarence Zebras

PPG 1.80 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

South Hobart

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 82.4% vs bookmaker-implied 88.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-13.1%0-25.7%0-36.8%0-4+15.4%1 1-01.0%1-13.6%1-26.5%1-37.8%1-4+17.6%2 2-00.6%2-12.1%2-23.7%2-34.4%2-4+10.1%3 3-00.2%3-10.8%3-21.4%3-31.7%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.0% 10.0% 10.00 +18.0%

Draw 18.6% 16.0% 6.25 +9.8%

Away win 68.3% 85.5% 1.17 -20.1%

Over 2.5 76.1% 82.0% 1.22 -7.2%

Over 3.5 53.4% 67.1% 1.49 -20.4%

BTTS 63.7% 65.4% 1.53 -2.5%

Home O1.5 38.6% 28.6% 3.50 +35.1%

Away O1.5 82.4% 88.5% 1.13 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)3.6 BTTS prob63.7%

A 68% / xG 1.1-3.6 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3✓ 7.8%

#2 1–4 7.0%

#3 0–3 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 0–4 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Clarence Zebras1.1

South Hobart3.6

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.1% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 1.80

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

Clarence Zebras (H) 13.0%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +18.0%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +9.8%

South Hobart (A) 68.3%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Clarence Zebras face South Hobart in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Clarence Zebras a 13% chance, the draw 19% and South Hobart 68%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Clarence Zebras and 3.6 for South Hobart (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Clarence Zebras are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.60 for South Hobart. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +35.1%. This match finished 1-3.

Clarence Zebras vs South Hobart Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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