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Weston Bears vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 04:00

Weston Bears

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Belmont Swansea

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.2%0-23.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-03.4%1-16.8%1-26.8%1-34.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.6%2-17.3%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.6%3-15.2%3-25.2%3-33.5%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-14.5%4+-24.5%4+-33.0%4+-4+2.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 54.1% 1.85 -19.9%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Away win 34.8% 30.3% 3.30 +14.8%

Over 2.5 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Over 3.5 45.2% 54.3% 1.84 -16.8%

BTTS 64.7% 73.5% 1.36 -12.0%

Home O1.5 61.0% 69.0% 1.45 -11.6%

Away O1.5 49.4% 49.0% 2.04 +0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob64.7%

H 43% / xG 2.1-2.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.8%

#2 2–2✓ 7.3%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston Bears2.1

Belmont Swansea2.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON BEARS · PPG 1.00

BELMONT SWANSEA · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.83) strong but model favors Home (P=43.3%)

Win probability 1X2

Weston Bears (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -19.9%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Belmont Swansea (A) 34.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston Bears face Belmont Swansea in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston Bears a 43% chance, the draw 22% and Belmont Swansea 35%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Weston Bears and 2.0 for Belmont Swansea (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston Bears are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.83 for Belmont Swansea. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Weston Bears vs Belmont Swansea Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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