Today / Australia - Northern NSW NPL / Adamstown R. vs Broadmeadow

Adamstown R. vs Broadmeadow Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, June 13, 2026, 04:00

Adamstown R.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Broadmeadow

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 77.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-15.2%0-26.9%0-36.1%0-4+7.8%1 1-02.5%1-16.6%1-28.8%1-37.8%1-4+9.9%2 2-01.6%2-14.2%2-25.6%2-35.0%2-4+6.3%3 3-00.7%3-11.8%3-22.4%3-32.1%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 20.8% 18.2% 5.50 +8.6%

Draw 21.1% 23.1% 4.33 -5.2%

Away win 58.1% 71.4% 1.40 -18.7%

Over 2.5 65.8% 73.5% 1.36 -10.5%

Over 3.5 42.8% 53.5% 1.87 -20.0%

BTTS 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Home O1.5 41.6% 35.7% 2.80 +16.5%

Away O1.5 67.9% 77.5% 1.29 -12.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 18.7%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob63.7%

A 58% / xG 1.3-2.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.8%

#2 1–3 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.6%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 0–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adamstown R.1.3

Broadmeadow2.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ADAMSTOWN R. · PPG 1.00

BROADMEADOW · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Adamstown R. (H) 20.8%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +8.6%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.2%

Broadmeadow (A) 58.1%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adamstown R. face Broadmeadow in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, June 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adamstown R. a 21% chance, the draw 21% and Broadmeadow 58%, so Broadmeadow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Adamstown R. and 2.7 for Broadmeadow (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adamstown R. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.29 for Broadmeadow. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 1-5.

Adamstown R. vs Broadmeadow Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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