Aalborg BK vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Denmark - 1. Division Relegation Group - 25 Aalborg Portland Park· Aalborg Saturday, April 18, 2026 16:30

Aalborg BK PPG 1.64

3-1 MISS

Aarhus Fremad PPG 0.92

Home· +25.3% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalborg BK face Aarhus Fremad in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalborg BK a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Aarhus Fremad 25%, so Aalborg BK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Aalborg BK and 1.2 for Aarhus Fremad (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalborg BK are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.92 for Aarhus Fremad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.2%

Odds: 2.40 EV: +25.3%

Draw 22.8%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -25.9%

Away 25.0%

Odds: 2.70 EV: -32.5%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.1% Odds: 1.73 +2.2%

Over 3.5 36.7% Odds: 2.75 +0.9%

BTTS 59.2% Odds: 1.53 -9.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Aalborg BK

1.85

Aarhus Fremad

1.21

Model SuggestionBTTS -9.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Home(+25.3%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5/Under 60%

BTTS/No 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 28.6%

Bet Hit 73% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away POOR (0.92)