Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Aalborg BK vs Aarhus Fremad

Aalborg BK vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

Aalborg BK

PPG 1.64 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Aarhus Fremad

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.7%0-23.4%0-31.4%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.6%1-110.5%1-26.4%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.9%3-16.0%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.2%4+-22.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 41.7% 2.40 +25.3%

Draw 22.8% 30.8% 3.25 -25.9%

Away win 25.0% 37.0% 2.70 -32.5%

Over 2.5 59.1% 57.8% 1.73 +2.2%

Over 3.5 36.7% 36.4% 2.75 +0.9%

BTTS 59.2% 65.4% 1.53 -9.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.2%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 8.6%

#4 2–0 8.0%

#5 1–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aalborg BK1.8

Aarhus Fremad1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AALBORG BK · PPG 1.64

AARHUS FREMAD · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away POOR (0.92)

Win probability 1X2

Aalborg BK (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +25.3%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -25.9%

Aarhus Fremad (A) 25.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -32.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aalborg BK face Aarhus Fremad in Denmark - 1. Division on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aalborg BK a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Aarhus Fremad 25%, so Aalborg BK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Aalborg BK and 1.2 for Aarhus Fremad (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aalborg BK are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.92 for Aarhus Fremad. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Aalborg BK vs Aarhus Fremad Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - 1. Division Predictions