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Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 19:00

Shelbourne

PPG 0.80 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-112.2%0-28.7%0-34.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.8%1-112.6%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.5%2-16.5%2-24.7%2-32.2%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.6%3-12.2%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.5% 38.2% 2.62 -20.1%

Draw 27.5% 30.3% 3.30 -5.5%

Away win 42.0% 38.2% 2.62 +10.0%

Over 2.5 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.7% 3.75 +3.2%

BTTS 52.2% 56.5% 1.77 -7.6%

Home O1.5 36.7% 39.2% 2.55 -6.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 39.2% 2.55 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -1.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.2%

A 42% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shelbourne1.0

Shamrock Rovers1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SHELBOURNE · PPG 0.80

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Shelbourne (H) 30.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -20.1%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.5%

Shamrock Rovers (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shelbourne face Shamrock Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shelbourne a 31% chance, the draw 28% and Shamrock Rovers 42%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Shelbourne and 1.4 for Shamrock Rovers (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shelbourne are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.50 for Shamrock Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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