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Treaty Utd vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 18:45

Treaty Utd

PPG 1.22 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bray Wanderers

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-111.4%0-28.2%0-34.0%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.7%1-112.5%1-29.0%1-34.3%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.7%2-16.8%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.7%3-12.5%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 26.0% 3.85 +7.0%

Draw 24.9% 27.0% 3.70 -4.7%

Away win 46.1% 54.1% 1.85 -14.7%

Over 2.5 54.4% 58.8% 1.70 -7.5%

Over 3.5 32.5% 35.7% 2.80 -9.0%

BTTS 55.7% 61.7% 1.62 -9.8%

Home O1.5 36.8% 35.7% 2.80 +3.0%

Away O1.5 36.8% 56.5% 1.77 -34.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob55.7%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.9%

#3 0–1 11.4%

#4 1–2 9.0%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treaty Utd1.1

Bray Wanderers1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TREATY UTD · PPG 1.22

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.22) > Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Treaty Utd (H) 29.0%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +7.0%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -4.7%

Bray Wanderers (A) 46.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Treaty Utd face Bray Wanderers in Ireland - First Division on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treaty Utd a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Bray Wanderers 46%, so Bray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Treaty Utd and 1.4 for Bray Wanderers (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treaty Utd are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.89 for Bray Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +7.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Treaty Utd vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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