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Kerry vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 18:45

Kerry

PPG 1.44 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Athlone Town

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.4%0-112.6%0-25.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.3%1-113.3%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.6%2-17.0%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.0%3-12.4%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 45.0% 2.22 -7.2%

Draw 30.8% 30.8% 3.25 +0.1%

Away win 27.4% 31.3% 3.20 -7.4%

Over 2.5 43.2% 47.6% 2.10 -9.3%

Over 3.5 22.9% 26.0% 3.85 -7.1%

BTTS 47.8% 54.6% 1.83 -12.5%

Home O1.5 36.8% 43.5% 2.30 -15.4%

Away O1.5 24.3% 33.3% 3.00 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -5.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.8%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 1–0✓ 16.3%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry1.1

Athlone Town0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.44

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -7.2%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +0.1%

Athlone Town (A) 27.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face Athlone Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 42% chance, the draw 31% and Athlone Town 27%, so Kerry are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kerry and 0.8 for Athlone Town (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.78 for Athlone Town. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Kerry vs Athlone Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions