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Waterford vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 18:45

Waterford

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Sligo Rovers

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-111.1%0-26.0%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.3%1-113.3%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.3%2-17.9%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.2%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 45.9% 2.18 -2.8%

Draw 27.5% 29.0% 3.45 -3.1%

Away win 27.9% 32.3% 3.10 -8.1%

Over 2.5 48.9% 54.6% 1.83 -10.5%

Over 3.5 28.4% 32.3% 3.10 -7.2%

BTTS 52.4% 61.7% 1.62 -15.1%

Home O1.5 40.4% 48.8% 2.05 -17.2%

Away O1.5 32.8% 39.2% 2.55 -16.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -1.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.4%

H 45% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waterford1.2

Sligo Rovers1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WATERFORD · PPG 1.00

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.89)

Win probability 1X2

Waterford (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.18 · IMPLIED 45.9% EV -2.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -3.1%

Sligo Rovers (A) 27.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waterford face Sligo Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waterford a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Sligo Rovers 28%, so Waterford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Waterford and 1.1 for Sligo Rovers (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waterford are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.89 for Sligo Rovers. This match finished 4-0.

Waterford vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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