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St. Patricks vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 18:45

St. Patricks

PPG 2.11 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Drogheda Utd

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+10.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.1%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-18.9%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.8%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-17.1%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-16.5%4+-22.8%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.3% 74.6% 1.34 -21.9%

Draw 22.0% 22.0% 4.55 +0.1%

Away win 19.7% 10.3% 9.70 +54.6%

Over 2.5 61.2% 55.6% 1.80 +10.2%

Over 3.5 39.7% 33.3% 3.00 +19.1%

BTTS 55.7% 48.8% 2.05 +14.2%

Home O1.5 61.0% 66.7% 1.50 -8.5%

Away O1.5 25.2% 18.2% 5.50 +23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -1.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.7%

H 58% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 11.3%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Patricks2.2

Drogheda Utd0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 2.11

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 0.89

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.11) vs P(Home)=58.3%

Win probability 1X2

St. Patricks (H) 58.3%

ODDS 1.34 · IMPLIED 74.6% EV -21.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +0.1%

Drogheda Utd (A) 19.7%

ODDS 9.70 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +54.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Patricks face Drogheda Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Patricks a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Drogheda Utd 20%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for St. Patricks and 0.9 for Drogheda Utd (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Patricks are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 0.89 for Drogheda Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.6%. This match finished 2-0.

St. Patricks vs Drogheda Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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