Today / Chile - Primera B / Recoleta vs Curico Unido

Recoleta vs Curico Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

Recoleta

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Curico Unido

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 89.7% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+83.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-10.6%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.1%1-12.5%1-21.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-04.3%2-15.1%2-23.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-16.9%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-018.0%4+-121.2%4+-212.5%4+-34.9%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.0% 48.8% 2.05 +76.3%

Draw 8.2% 31.3% 3.20 -73.8%

Away win 5.8% 29.9% 3.35 -80.6%

Over 2.5 89.7% 48.8% 2.05 +83.9%

Over 3.5 77.1% 27.0% 3.70 +185.3%

BTTS 68.1% 55.6% 1.80 +22.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 6.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 86%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob68.1%

H 86% / xG 4.1-1.2 / O2.5 90% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 7.1%

#2 3–1 6.9%

#3 4–0 6.0%

#4 3–0 5.9%

#5 5–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recoleta4.1

Curico Unido1.2

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 89.7% · O3.5 PROB 77.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RECOLETA · PPG 2.00

CURICO UNIDO · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Recoleta (H) 86.0%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +76.3%

Draw 8.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -73.8%

Curico Unido (A) 5.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -80.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Recoleta face Curico Unido in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recoleta a 86% chance, the draw 8% and Curico Unido 6%, so Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for Recoleta and 1.2 for Curico Unido (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 90% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recoleta are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Curico Unido. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +185.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Recoleta vs Curico Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Match Preview & Prediction

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