Recoleta vs Curico Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera B

Chile - Primera B Regular Season - 8 Saturday, April 18, 2026 16:30

Recoleta PPG 2.00

2-2 MISS

Curico Unido PPG 0.50

Over3.5· +185.3% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Recoleta face Curico Unido in Chile - Primera B on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recoleta a 86% chance, the draw 8% and Curico Unido 6%, so Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for Recoleta and 1.2 for Curico Unido (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 90% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recoleta are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Curico Unido. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +185.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 86.0%

Odds: 2.05 EV: +76.3%

Draw 8.2%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -73.8%

Away 5.8%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -80.6%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 89.7% Odds: 2.05 +83.9%

Over 3.5 77.1% Odds: 3.70 +185.3%

BTTS 68.1% Odds: 1.80 +22.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 4-1 ✘

2nd 3-1 ✘

3rd 4-0 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 5-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Recoleta

4.09

Curico Unido

1.18

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +83.9% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+185.3%)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus