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Galway Utd vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 18:45

Galway Utd

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Dundalk

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-15.6%0-24.7%0-32.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-05.7%1-19.6%1-28.1%1-34.5%1-4+2.8%2 2-05.0%2-18.3%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.9%3-14.8%3-24.0%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.1%4+-22.6%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.5% 37.6% 2.66 +10.4%

Draw 23.1% 27.8% 3.60 -10.1%

Away win 35.4% 41.7% 2.40 -15.0%

Over 2.5 64.2% 61.7% 1.62 +4.0%

Over 3.5 41.5% 38.5% 2.60 +7.9%

BTTS 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Home O1.5 54.8% 47.6% 2.10 +15.1%

Away O1.5 49.4% 50.0% 2.00 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -1.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.7%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galway Utd1.7

Dundalk1.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GALWAY UTD · PPG 1.38

DUNDALK · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Galway Utd (H) 41.5%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV +10.4%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -10.1%

Dundalk (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galway Utd face Dundalk in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galway Utd a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Dundalk 35%, so Galway Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Galway Utd and 1.7 for Dundalk (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galway Utd are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Dundalk. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Galway Utd vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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