Derry City vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Ireland - Premier Division Regular Season - 20 The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium· Derry Friday, June 12, 2026 18:45

Derry City PPG 1.40

VS PENDING

Bohemians PPG 2.00

HomeO15· +4.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Derry City face Bohemians in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derry City a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Bohemians 43%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Derry City and 1.3 for Bohemians (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derry City are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.00 for Bohemians. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.6%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 29.6%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -6.7%

Draw 27.8%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -5.8%

Away 42.6%

Odds: 2.32 EV: -1.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.9% Odds: 2.10 +2.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% Odds: 3.80 +4.1%

BTTS 51.2% Odds: 1.80 -7.8%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 0-0

3rd 0-1

4th 0-2

5th 1-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Derry City

0.97

Bohemians

1.27

Model SuggestionBTTS -7.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: HomeO15 (+4.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 46.6%

Bet Hit 79% (14 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)