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Derry City vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 20 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 18:45

Derry City

PPG 1.40 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bohemians

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-113.5%0-28.6%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.3%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.0%2-16.4%2-24.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

Draw 27.8% 30.8% 3.25 -5.8%

Away win 42.6% 43.1% 2.32 -1.2%

Over 2.5 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.3% 3.80 +4.1%

BTTS 51.2% 55.6% 1.80 -7.8%

Home O1.5 36.7% 35.1% 2.85 +4.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 42.0% 2.38 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -1.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.2%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.7%

#3 0–1 13.5%

#4 0–2 8.6%

#5 1–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derry City1.0

Bohemians1.3

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DERRY CITY · PPG 1.40

BOHEMIANS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Derry City (H) 29.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.7%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.8%

Bohemians (A) 42.6%

ODDS 2.32 · IMPLIED 43.1% EV -1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derry City face Bohemians in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derry City a 30% chance, the draw 28% and Bohemians 43%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Derry City and 1.3 for Bohemians (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derry City are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.00 for Bohemians. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 4-1.

Derry City vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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