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Umea vs Pitea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 12 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 17:00

Umea

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Pitea

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.9%0-23.4%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.8%1-19.5%1-26.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.5%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.4%3-16.1%3-24.3%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.7%4+-23.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 64.5% 1.55 -22.8%

Draw 22.6% 25.0% 4.00 -5.8%

Away win 27.6% 21.1% 4.75 +18.7%

Over 2.5 64.2% 66.7% 1.50 -3.7%

Over 3.5 40.0% 45.5% 2.20 -12.0%

BTTS 61.6% 66.7% 1.50 -7.6%

Home O1.5 59.1% 69.0% 1.45 -14.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 35.7% 2.80 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 50% / xG 2.0-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0✓ 6.7%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umea2.0

Pitea1.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEA · PPG 1.00

PITEA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Umea (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -22.8%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.8%

Pitea (A) 27.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +18.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Umea face Pitea in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umea a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Pitea 28%, so Umea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Umea and 1.4 for Pitea (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umea are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Pitea. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Umea vs Pitea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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