Umea vs Pitea Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Sweden - Ettan - Norra Norra - 12 Umea Energi Arena· Umea Friday, June 12, 2026 17:00

Umea PPG 1.00

VS PENDING

Pitea PPG 1.40

Away· +18.7% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Umea face Pitea in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umea a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Pitea 28%, so Umea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Umea and 1.4 for Pitea (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umea are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Pitea. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.7%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 49.8%

Odds: 1.55 EV: -22.8%

Draw 22.6%

Odds: 4.00 EV: -5.8%

Away 27.6%

Odds: 4.75 EV: +18.7%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 64.2% Odds: 1.50 -3.7%

Over 3.5 40.0% Odds: 2.20 -12.0%

BTTS 61.6% Odds: 1.50 -7.6%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 2-1

3rd 2-0

4th 1-2

5th 2-2

Expected Goals (xG)

Umea

1.96

Pitea

1.40

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -3.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -3.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+18.7%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5/Under 66%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -25.3%

Bet Hit 42% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.40)