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EBK vs MuSa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Group B ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 16:30

EBK

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

MuSa

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 76.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-11.2%0-20.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.4%1-14.0%1-22.3%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.8%2-16.9%2-24.0%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-17.9%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-014.0%4+-116.4%4+-29.6%4+-33.8%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% 71.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Draw 18.1% 22.2% 4.50 -11.1%

Away win 18.5% 18.2% 5.50 +1.1%

Over 2.5 73.0% 78.1% 1.28 -6.6%

Over 3.5 53.4% 59.9% 1.67 -10.8%

BTTS 63.7% 73.5% 1.36 -13.4%

Home O1.5 76.0% 80.0% 1.25 -5.0%

Away O1.5 32.8% 36.4% 2.75 -9.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)3.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.7%

H 63% / xG 3.4-1.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 6.9%

#3 4–1 6.8%

#4 3–0 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

EBK3.4

MuSa1.2

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 53.4%

Form & verdict PPG

EBK · PPG 1.75

MUSA · PPG 0.25

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=63.4%

Win probability 1X2

EBK (H) 63.4%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -11.2%

Draw 18.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -11.1%

MuSa (A) 18.5%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

EBK face MuSa in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives EBK a 63% chance, the draw 18% and MuSa 19%, so EBK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.4 for EBK and 1.2 for MuSa (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, EBK are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.25 for MuSa. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 0-2.

EBK vs MuSa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Match Preview & Prediction

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