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Follo vs Kjelsas Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 16:00

Follo

PPG 0.80 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Kjelsas

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 67.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.8%0-26.8%0-35.3%0-4+5.4%1 1-03.4%1-17.9%1-29.2%1-37.2%1-4+7.3%2 2-02.3%2-15.3%2-26.2%2-34.9%2-4+4.9%3 3-01.0%3-12.4%3-22.8%3-32.2%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% 22.7% 4.40 +5.2%

Draw 21.6% 25.3% 3.95 -8.8%

Away win 53.7% 61.7% 1.62 -13.0%

Over 2.5 64.2% 65.4% 1.53 -1.8%

Over 3.5 42.0% 42.6% 2.35 -1.3%

BTTS 61.6% 65.4% 1.53 -5.8%

Home O1.5 41.6% 35.7% 2.80 +16.5%

Away O1.5 67.9% 65.4% 1.53 +3.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob61.6%

A 54% / xG 1.4-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.9%

#3 1–3 7.2%

#4 0–2 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Follo1.4

Kjelsas2.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FOLLO · PPG 0.80

KJELSAS · PPG 2.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Follo (H) 24.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +5.2%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -8.8%

Kjelsas (A) 53.7%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Follo face Kjelsas in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Follo a 25% chance, the draw 22% and Kjelsas 54%, so Kjelsas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Follo and 2.3 for Kjelsas (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Follo are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 2.50 for Kjelsas. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 1-4.

Follo vs Kjelsas Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 Predictions