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Junkeren vs Lørenskog Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 13:00

Junkeren

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Lørenskog

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-19.7%0-28.1%0-34.5%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.8%1-111.4%1-29.5%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.0%2-16.7%2-25.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.6%3-12.6%3-22.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% 24.4% 4.10 +27.5%

Draw 24.8% 23.8% 4.20 +2.5%

Away win 44.1% 61.7% 1.62 -28.6%

Over 2.5 60.7% 69.0% 1.45 -12.0%

Over 3.5 37.5% 46.5% 2.15 -19.4%

BTTS 60.6% 67.6% 1.48 -10.3%

Home O1.5 35.0% 39.2% 2.55 -10.8%

Away O1.5 49.0% 67.6% 1.48 -27.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.6%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 8.1%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Junkeren1.2

Lørenskog1.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JUNKEREN · PPG 1.67

LØRENSKOG · PPG 1.83

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.50 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Junkeren (H) 31.1%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +27.5%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +2.5%

Lørenskog (A) 44.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Junkeren face Lørenskog in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Junkeren a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Lørenskog 44%, so Lørenskog are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Junkeren and 1.7 for Lørenskog (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Junkeren are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.83 for Lørenskog. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.3%.

Junkeren vs Lørenskog Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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