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Hønefoss vs Skeid Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 12:00

Hønefoss

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Skeid

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-13.9%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.0%1-18.7%1-24.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.7%3-17.3%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-17.0%4+-23.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 59.5% 1.68 -4.2%

Draw 22.5% 25.3% 3.95 -6.7%

Away win 20.4% 25.3% 3.95 -11.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 70.4% 1.42 -9.6%

Over 3.5 40.0% 48.8% 2.05 -18.0%

BTTS 60.1% 70.4% 1.42 -14.7%

Home O1.5 61.8% 67.6% 1.48 -8.5%

Away O1.5 36.4% 42.6% 2.35 -14.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -0.6%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.1%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hønefoss2.2

Skeid1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HØNEFOSS · PPG 2.17

SKEID · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hønefoss (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -4.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -6.7%

Skeid (A) 20.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -11.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hønefoss face Skeid in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hønefoss a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Skeid 20%, so Hønefoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Hønefoss and 1.1 for Skeid (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hønefoss are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.50 for Skeid.

Hønefoss vs Skeid Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 Predictions