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Dziugas Telsiai vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 16:00

Dziugas Telsiai

PPG 1.88 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Siauliai

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=54.6%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-17.3%0-22.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-111.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-18.9%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-14.7%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% — — —

Draw 25.2% — — —

Away win 20.2% — — —

Over 2.5 48.7% — — —

Over 3.5 28.1% — — —

BTTS 47.8% — — —

Home O1.5 49.3% — — —

Away O1.5 24.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.8%

H 55% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 0–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dziugas Telsiai1.6

Siauliai0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DZIUGAS TELSIAI · PPG 1.88

SIAULIAI · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=54.6%

Win probability 1X2

Dziugas Telsiai (H) 54.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Siauliai (A) 20.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Dziugas Telsiai face Siauliai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dziugas Telsiai a 55% chance, the draw 25% and Siauliai 20%, so Dziugas Telsiai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dziugas Telsiai and 0.7 for Siauliai (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dziugas Telsiai are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.78 for Siauliai. This match finished 4-3.

Dziugas Telsiai vs Siauliai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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