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Panevezys vs TransINVEST Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 15:30

Panevezys

PPG 1.71 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

TransINVEST

PPG 1.63 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-111.6%0-29.9%0-35.6%0-4+3.5%1 1-06.7%1-111.4%1-29.7%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.3%2-15.6%2-24.8%2-32.7%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.1%3-11.8%3-21.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.5% 31.3% 3.20 -16.8%

Draw 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

Away win 51.8% 47.6% 2.10 +8.8%

Over 2.5 54.3% 54.1% 1.85 +0.5%

Over 3.5 32.5% 30.8% 3.25 +5.6%

BTTS 55.6% 58.8% 1.70 -5.5%

Home O1.5 36.7% 33.3% 3.00 +10.1%

Away O1.5 49.4% 50.0% 2.00 -1.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob55.6%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 0–1 11.6%

#3 0–2 9.9%

#4 1–2✓ 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Panevezys1.0

TransINVEST1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PANEVEZYS · PPG 1.71

TRANSINVEST · PPG 1.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.71), Away GOOD (1.63)

Win probability 1X2

Panevezys (H) 22.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.8%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.7%

TransINVEST (A) 51.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Panevezys face TransINVEST in Lithuania - A Lyga on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Panevezys a 23% chance, the draw 26% and TransINVEST 52%, so TransINVEST are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Panevezys and 1.7 for TransINVEST (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Panevezys are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.63 for TransINVEST. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Panevezys vs TransINVEST Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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