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Leonesa vs Cordoba Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 36 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

Leonesa

PPG 0.76 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cordoba

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-110.4%0-27.2%0-33.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.1%1-112.6%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.5%2-17.6%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.2%3-13.0%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 40.0% 2.50 -18.0%

Draw 26.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 40.8% 37.6% 2.66 +8.5%

Over 2.5 47.7% 54.6% 1.83 -12.7%

Over 3.5 26.0% 32.3% 3.10 -19.4%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 10.4%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–2✓ 8.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leonesa1.2

Cordoba1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONESA · PPG 0.76

CORDOBA · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

59%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.28) vs Home POOR (0.76)

Win probability 1X2

Leonesa (H) 32.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Cordoba (A) 40.8%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leonesa face Cordoba in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leonesa a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Cordoba 41%, so Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Leonesa and 1.4 for Cordoba (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leonesa are averaging 0.76 points per game versus 1.28 for Cordoba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Leonesa vs Cordoba Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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