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Leonesa vs Cordoba Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 36 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

Leonesa

PPG 0.76 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cordoba

PPG 1.28 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-110.4%0-27.2%0-33.3%0-4+1.5%1 1-09.1%1-112.6%1-28.6%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.5%2-17.6%2-25.2%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.2%3-13.0%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 40.0% 2.50 -18.0%

Draw 26.4% 29.4% 3.40 -10.2%

Away win 40.8% 37.6% 2.66 +8.5%

Over 2.5 47.7% 54.6% 1.83 -12.7%

Over 3.5 26.0% 32.3% 3.10 -19.4%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.3%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 10.4%

#3 1–0 9.1%

#4 1–2✓ 8.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leonesa1.2

Cordoba1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONESA · PPG 0.76

CORDOBA · PPG 1.28

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.28) vs Home POOR (0.76)

Win probability 1X2

Leonesa (H) 32.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.0%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.2%

Cordoba (A) 40.8%

ODDS 2.66 · IMPLIED 37.6% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leonesa face Cordoba in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leonesa a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Cordoba 41%, so Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Leonesa and 1.4 for Cordoba (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leonesa are averaging 0.76 points per game versus 1.28 for Cordoba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Leonesa vs Cordoba Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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