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Marconi S. vs Sydney FC B Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 10:00

Marconi S.

PPG 2.67 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sydney FC B

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-13.5%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.5%1-18.2%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.5%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.7%4+-17.6%4+-23.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 73.5% 1.36 -16.2%

Draw 20.3% 22.2% 4.50 -5.2%

Away win 18.1% 14.3% 7.00 +16.0%

Over 2.5 60.6% 63.7% 1.57 -4.9%

Over 3.5 39.4% 41.7% 2.40 -5.4%

BTTS 53.4% 57.1% 1.75 -6.6%

Home O1.5 61.0% 71.4% 1.40 -14.6%

Away O1.5 25.2% 25.3% 3.95 -0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.4%

H 62% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 8.7%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi S.2.3

Sydney FC B0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.6% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI S. · PPG 2.67

SYDNEY FC B · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=61.6%

Win probability 1X2

Marconi S. (H) 61.6%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -16.2%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -5.2%

Sydney FC B (A) 18.1%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi S. face Sydney FC B in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi S. a 62% chance, the draw 20% and Sydney FC B 18%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Marconi S. and 0.9 for Sydney FC B (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi S. are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.17 for Sydney FC B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Marconi S. vs Sydney FC B Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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