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Manly Utd vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 09:30

Manly Utd

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Sydney Utd

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.3%0-115.6%0-210.7%0-34.9%0-4+2.3%1 1-09.1%1-112.5%1-28.6%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-03.7%2-15.0%2-23.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.7%3 3-01.0%3-11.3%3-20.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 26.7% 3.75 +1.7%

Draw 29.2% 28.6% 3.50 +1.3%

Away win 43.4% 54.6% 1.83 -20.6%

Over 2.5 43.7% 54.1% 1.85 -19.1%

Over 3.5 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

BTTS 47.8% 57.8% 1.73 -17.3%

Home O1.5 33.0% 33.3% 3.00 -1.0%

Away O1.5 33.0% 54.1% 1.85 -39.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 119 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob47.8%

A 43% / xG 0.8-1.4 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.5%

#2 0–1 15.6%

#3 0–0 11.3%

#4 0–2 10.7%

#5 1–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manly Utd0.8

Sydney Utd1.4

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.7% · O3.5 PROB 24.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MANLY UTD · PPG 1.50

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Manly Utd (H) 27.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.7%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.3%

Sydney Utd (A) 43.4%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -20.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manly Utd face Sydney Utd in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manly Utd a 27% chance, the draw 29% and Sydney Utd 43%, so Sydney Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Manly Utd and 1.4 for Sydney Utd (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manly Utd are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.25 for Sydney Utd. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Manly Utd vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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