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Spain - Segunda División logo Spain flag Spain - Segunda División Regular Season - 36 Estadio Municipal de Castalia· Castellon Saturday, April 18, 2026 16:30
Castellon logo Castellon PPG 2.12
3-1 MISS
Burgos logo Burgos PPG 1.59
Away· +13.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 49.4%
Odds: 1.73 EV: -14.5%
Draw 26.7%
Odds: 3.55 EV: -5.2%
Away 23.9%
Odds: 4.75 EV: +13.5%
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 42.2% Odds: 2.00 -15.6%
Over 3.5 21.5% Odds: 3.50 -24.8%
BTTS 46.0% Odds: 1.85 -14.9%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 2-0
4th 0-0
5th 2-1

Expected Goals (xG)

Castellon
1.45
Burgos
0.92

Model Suggestion

No Bet NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.12) > Away GOOD (1.59)

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