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Castellon vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 36 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:30

Castellon

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

Burgos

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-18.6%0-24.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.6%1-112.5%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.0%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.7%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 57.8% 1.73 -14.5%

Draw 26.7% 28.2% 3.55 -5.2%

Away win 23.9% 21.1% 4.75 +13.5%

Over 2.5 42.2% 50.0% 2.00 -15.6%

Over 3.5 21.5% 28.6% 3.50 -24.8%

BTTS 46.0% 54.1% 1.85 -14.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.0%

H 49% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Castellon1.4

Burgos0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.2% · O3.5 PROB 21.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTELLON · PPG 2.12

BURGOS · PPG 1.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.12) > Away GOOD (1.59)

Win probability 1X2

Castellon (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -14.5%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -5.2%

Burgos (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Castellon face Burgos in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castellon a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Burgos 24%, so Castellon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Castellon and 0.9 for Burgos (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castellon are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.59 for Burgos. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Castellon vs Burgos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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