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Spain - Segunda División
Regular Season - 36
Estadio Municipal de Castalia· Castellon
Saturday, April 18, 2026
16:30
Castellon
PPG 2.12
3-1
MISS
Burgos
PPG 1.59
Away· +13.5%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
49.4%
Odds: 1.73
EV: -14.5%
Draw
26.7%
Odds: 3.55
EV: -5.2%
Away
23.9%
Odds: 4.75
EV: +13.5%
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
42.2%
Odds: 2.00
-15.6%
Over 3.5
21.5%
Odds: 3.50
-24.8%
BTTS
46.0%
Odds: 1.85
-14.9%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘
BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-0
✘
2nd
1-1
✘
3rd
2-0
✘
4th
0-0
✘
5th
2-1
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Castellon
1.45
Burgos
0.92
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
52%
MODERATE_HOME
Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.12) > Away GOOD (1.59)