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Motala vs Kumla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 12 ·Thursday, June 11, 2026, 17:00

Motala

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Kumla

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-19.3%0-25.2%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.4%1-112.7%1-27.1%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.8%2-18.7%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.6%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 67.6% 1.48 -33.6%

Draw 27.6% 23.1% 4.33 +11.7%

Away win 27.5% 19.6% 5.10 +24.1%

Over 2.5 48.9% 69.0% 1.45 -29.1%

Over 3.5 28.1% 45.5% 2.20 -22.9%

BTTS 52.3% 64.5% 1.55 -18.9%

Home O1.5 41.6% 70.4% 1.42 -40.9%

Away O1.5 32.8% 33.9% 2.95 -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0✓ 8.3%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motala1.4

Kumla1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTALA · PPG 2.00

KUMLA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Motala (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -33.6%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +11.7%

Kumla (A) 27.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motala face Kumla in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motala a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Kumla 28%, so Motala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Motala and 1.1 for Kumla (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motala are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Kumla. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Motala vs Kumla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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