Motala vs Kumla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland Norra Götaland - 12 Thursday, June 11, 2026 17:00

Motala PPG 2.00

VS PENDING

Kumla PPG 1.40

Away· +24.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Motala face Kumla in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motala a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Kumla 28%, so Motala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Motala and 1.1 for Kumla (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motala are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Kumla. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.1%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.9%

Odds: 1.48 EV: -33.6%

Draw 27.6%

Odds: 4.33 EV: +11.7%

Away 27.5%

Odds: 5.10 EV: +24.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.9% Odds: 1.45 -29.1%

Over 3.5 28.1% Odds: 2.20 -22.9%

BTTS 52.3% Odds: 1.55 -18.9%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 0-0

3rd 1-0

4th 2-1

5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Motala

1.37

Kumla

1.12

Model SuggestionBTTS -18.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -18.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+24.1%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5/Under 50%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 35%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.40)