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Skara vs IFK Skovde Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 10 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:00

Skara

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

IFK Skovde

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+15.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-14.0%0-24.7%0-33.7%0-4+3.8%1 1-02.9%1-16.9%1-28.1%1-36.4%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.5%2-15.9%2-27.0%2-35.5%2-4+5.6%3 3-01.4%3-13.4%3-24.0%3-33.1%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.1%4+-22.5%4+-32.0%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 35.7% 2.80 -11.5%

Draw 21.7% 27.0% 3.70 -11.8%

Away win 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Over 2.5 65.8% 69.0% 1.45 -4.6%

Over 3.5 45.3% 46.5% 2.15 -2.6%

BTTS 63.4% 71.4% 1.40 -11.2%

Home O1.5 51.2% 50.0% 2.00 +2.4%

Away O1.5 68.1% 58.8% 1.70 +15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob63.4%

A 49% / xG 1.7-2.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–1 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skara1.7

IFK Skovde2.4

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SKARA · PPG 2.50

IFK SKOVDE · PPG 2.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.50), Away EXCELLENT (2.50)

Win probability 1X2

Skara (H) 28.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -11.5%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.8%

IFK Skovde (A) 49.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skara face IFK Skovde in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skara a 29% chance, the draw 22% and IFK Skovde 49%, so IFK Skovde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Skara and 2.4 for IFK Skovde (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skara are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.50 for IFK Skovde. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Skara vs IFK Skovde Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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