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Herrestads vs Motala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 11 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 11:00

Herrestads

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Motala

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-14.3%0-23.7%0-32.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-04.9%1-18.5%1-27.3%1-34.2%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.8%2-18.3%2-27.2%2-34.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-03.1%3-15.4%3-24.7%3-32.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.2%4+-23.6%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 45.5% 2.20 -4.3%

Draw 22.0% 28.6% 3.50 -13.8%

Away win 34.5% 36.4% 2.75 -5.1%

Over 2.5 64.6% 65.4% 1.53 -1.2%

Over 3.5 42.1% 43.5% 2.30 -3.2%

BTTS 63.5% 70.4% 1.42 -9.8%

Home O1.5 55.0% 55.6% 1.80 -1.0%

Away O1.5 44.6% 48.8% 2.05 -8.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 2.0-1.7 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 8.3%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Herrestads2.0

Motala1.7

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HERRESTADS · PPG 1.60

MOTALA · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Herrestads (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -4.3%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.8%

Motala (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Herrestads face Motala in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Herrestads a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Motala 35%, so Herrestads are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Herrestads and 1.7 for Motala (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Herrestads are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.80 for Motala. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Herrestads vs Motala Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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