Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland / Tord vs Lidkoping

Tord vs Lidkoping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 11:00

Tord

PPG 0.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lidkoping

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.1%0-22.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.2%1-18.8%1-26.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.6%3-16.5%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.6%4+-24.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 57.8% 1.73 -7.3%

Draw 22.6% 26.7% 3.75 -9.2%

Away win 23.8% 26.0% 3.85 -5.0%

Over 2.5 64.6% 59.9% 1.67 +7.9%

Over 3.5 42.0% 37.0% 2.70 +13.4%

BTTS 62.4% 61.7% 1.62 +1.1%

Home O1.5 60.4% 59.9% 1.67 +0.9%

Away O1.5 32.0% 35.1% 2.85 -8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.4%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tord2.1

Lidkoping1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TORD · PPG 0.50

LIDKOPING · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Tord (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -7.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.2%

Lidkoping (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tord face Lidkoping in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tord a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Lidkoping 24%, so Tord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Tord and 1.4 for Lidkoping (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tord are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.80 for Lidkoping. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Tord vs Lidkoping Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland Predictions