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Kumla vs Ahlafors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 11 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 12:00

Kumla

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ahlafors

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.8%0-27.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.6%1-111.1%1-29.4%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.2%2-17.1%2-26.0%2-33.3%2-4+2.1%3 3-01.8%3-13.0%3-22.5%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 35.7% 2.80 -12.3%

Draw 23.0% 27.0% 3.70 -8.9%

Away win 48.6% 46.5% 2.15 +4.5%

Over 2.5 60.7% 66.7% 1.50 -8.9%

Over 3.5 36.8% 45.5% 2.20 -19.0%

BTTS 56.7% 70.4% 1.42 -19.5%

Home O1.5 46.9% 48.8% 2.05 -3.9%

Away O1.5 44.6% 57.1% 1.75 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob56.7%

A 49% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.1%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 2–1 7.1%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kumla1.3

Ahlafors1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

KUMLA · PPG 1.00

AHLAFORS · PPG 1.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.80) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kumla (H) 28.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.3%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.9%

Ahlafors (A) 48.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +4.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kumla face Ahlafors in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kumla a 28% chance, the draw 23% and Ahlafors 49%, so Ahlafors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kumla and 1.7 for Ahlafors (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kumla are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.80 for Ahlafors. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Kumla vs Ahlafors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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