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Lidkoping vs IF Karlstad B Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 10 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:30

Lidkoping

PPG 0.25 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

IF Karlstad B

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.3%0-25.8%0-34.2%0-4+3.7%1 1-03.8%1-18.2%1-28.9%1-36.4%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.3%2-26.8%2-34.9%2-4+4.4%3 3-01.5%3-13.2%3-23.5%3-32.5%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 46.5% 2.15 -35.1%

Draw 23.0% 28.2% 3.55 -11.0%

Away win 46.8% 35.7% 2.80 +31.0%

Over 2.5 65.8% 66.7% 1.50 -1.3%

Over 3.5 43.1% 45.5% 2.20 -5.2%

BTTS 63.4% 70.4% 1.42 -10.0%

Home O1.5 45.4% 57.1% 1.75 -20.5%

Away O1.5 63.7% 48.8% 2.05 +30.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.4%

A 47% / xG 1.5-2.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lidkoping1.5

IF Karlstad B2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LIDKOPING · PPG 0.25

IF KARLSTAD B · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: POOR form (0.80) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Lidkoping (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -35.1%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -11.0%

IF Karlstad B (A) 46.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +31.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lidkoping face IF Karlstad B in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lidkoping a 30% chance, the draw 23% and IF Karlstad B 47%, so IF Karlstad B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Lidkoping and 2.2 for IF Karlstad B (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lidkoping are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 0.80 for IF Karlstad B. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +64.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Lidkoping vs IF Karlstad B Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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