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Tord vs Ahlafors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Norra Götaland - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Tord

PPG 0.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Ahlafors

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 74.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a clear edge.

+15.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-14.2%0-25.5%0-34.9%0-4+6.1%1 1-02.4%1-16.3%1-28.3%1-37.3%1-4+9.2%2 2-01.8%2-14.7%2-26.2%2-35.5%2-4+6.9%3 3-00.9%3-12.4%3-23.1%3-32.8%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.2%4+-21.6%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.1% 26.3% 3.80 -11.9%

Draw 21.1% 26.0% 3.85 -11.3%

Away win 57.9% 57.8% 1.73 +0.2%

Over 2.5 65.8% 67.6% 1.48 -2.6%

Over 3.5 45.5% 45.5% 2.20 +0.1%

BTTS 63.4% 69.0% 1.45 -8.1%

Home O1.5 44.4% 40.8% 2.45 +8.8%

Away O1.5 74.2% 64.5% 1.55 +15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -16.3%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.4%

A 58% / xG 1.5-2.6 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 8.3%

#2 1–3 7.3%

#3 1–1 6.3%

#4 2–2 6.2%

#5 2–3 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tord1.5

Ahlafors2.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TORD · PPG 0.60

AHLAFORS · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Tord (H) 21.1%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.9%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -11.3%

Ahlafors (A) 57.9%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tord face Ahlafors in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tord a 21% chance, the draw 21% and Ahlafors 58%, so Ahlafors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Tord and 2.6 for Ahlafors (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tord are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.50 for Ahlafors. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Tord vs Ahlafors Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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